By Sara Faitelson
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November 24, 2020
I thought I would write about something that happened last week. A client calls a few weeks ago frantic to move everything to cash. We of course did what the client asked us to do. Then the next day he tells me how happy he is in cash. A week later he calls me frantic telling me to move a portion back into the market today. He asked what I thought. I said “you should do whatever makes you happy.” At the end of the day I know my client and all he wants to do is whatever he wants to do. There is no way of moving that mountain. Why is he doing this? Of course, he is trying to time the market. Does he usually get it right? No, but it makes him feel better, so I do what he asks me to do. Should you run to cash? The answer is as always: it depends. This client will not retire for at least another 10 years so timing the market makes no sense. He can get in and out of the dance all he wants, but it will not matter until he is ready to retire. If he retires in a downward market then not only will he be losing money, but he will be taking money out to live on. He will bleed his accounts if he retires in multiple two back to back downward market years. For example, 1973 and 1974’s rates of return for large cap growth funds were negative back to back years. If want to find out how downward the market was in those years, can look up historical rates of return on yahoo’s website. So that is why it is good to have a sound defensive and offensive retirement strategy. Many people know how to get up the mountain, but crash and burn when trying to get down the mountain I like to call “retirement.” If he called me and was on the cusp on retiring this year or next year, then I would likely tell him that preservation of capital is imperative because he cannot afford to take a lot risk so close to retirement. However, he has a long way to go and all he is doing is driving himself crazy. The moral of the story is: do not make knee jerk decisions until you talk to your financial advisor and try to keep an open mind. All investing involves risk, including loss of value, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. 7182883DH_OCT26